Character

Hello,

Resting after a long farm session at Bismarck Ex, but thought I'd provide some insight into the obtainment rates of these nice, glowy pidgeons for all those unlucky farmers out there who have yet to get their drop.

Now, before I continue, I will make note that these calculations are made based on fellow player feedback stating that the estimated drop rate is about 5% (1 drop in every 20 runs). Personally, after farming over the last 2 and a half weeks, I'd say I really do see, on average, 1 whistle in every 20 or so runs, so that % chance is about right. (Not surprised if the actual rate is off by a percent or 2, of course.)

Here are your chances:
Note: This assumes you are farming without a static, as in no one passes the bird for you.
●------------------------------------------------------------------●
| # of Runs | % Chance to obtain from drop |
●------------------------------------------------------------------●
| . . . . 1 . . . .| . . . . . . . . . 0.625 . . . . . . . . . . . . |
| . . . . 5 . . . .| . . . . . . . . . 3.086 . . . . . . . . . . . . |
| . . . . 10 . . .| . . . . . . . . . 6.077 . . . . . . . . . . . . |
| . . . . 25 . . .| . . . . . . . . . 14.51 . . . . . . . . . . . . |
| . . . . 50 . . .| . . . . . . . . . 26.91 . . . . . . . . . . . . |
| . . . . 75 . . .| . . . . . . . . . 37.51 . . . . . . . . . . . . |
| . . . 100 . . .| . . . . . . . . . 46.58 . . . . . . . . . . . . |
| . . . 150 . . .| . . . . . . . . . 60.95 . . . . . . . . . . . . |
| . . . 200 . . .| . . . . . . . . . 71.46 . . . . . . . . . . . . |
| . . . 250 . . .| . . . . . . . . . 79.14 . . . . . . . . . . . . |
| . . . 300 . . .| . . . . . . . . . 84.75 . . . . . . . . . . . . |
| . . . 400 . . .| . . . . . . . . . 91.86 . . . . . . . . . . . . |
| . . . 500 . . .| . . . . . . . . . 95.65 . . . . . . . . . . . . |
| . . . 750 . . .| . . . . . . . . . 99.09 . . . . . . . . . . . . |
| . . . 1000 . .| . . . . . . . . . 99.81 . . . . . . . . . . . . |

*Values obtained via MATLAB, calculations done based on the binomial distribution.

My advice, dear fellow farmers, count your totems to ease the disappointment for those runs where your bird doesn't drop or you lost your roll! And try to make friends with your fellow farmers, the occasional joke/conversation between ques really help the mood.

Good Luck!
-Luxie ♡

P.S. For those lucky people who already got your drops, grats, but try to help out your less fortunate friends who really, really want one. ;)

P.S.S. If someone reading this is crazy enough to do 1000 runs without a static (of at least 6 farmers/friends), before hating me for getting your hopes up, please understand that you will be doing 1000 runs at a 0.625% chance of obtainment per run. What this means is you MIGHT still NOT get your precious bird after 1000 runs, as unlikely as that 0.19% chance of this happening seems! Now remember not to hate me. xD

P.S.S.S. Dear Square Enix, for the love of USD, JPY, EUR, and every other monetary currency in the world too, because I know this is what you want most as a corporation, please let dedicated farmers buy the mount at a cost of 200 to 500 Expanse Totems! What more must some of us do to earn the mount???